Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific liquidity constraints on Binance
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 1:47:00 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 38% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,657,654
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Ethereum (ETH/USDT) prediction market for a price above 1,600 at 11PM ET on July 1 shows a balanced probability of 50.00%, indicating high uncertainty. The resolution relies on Binance's ETH/USDT hourly candle close, emphasizing exchange-specific liquidity and volatility risks.
Ethereum could surpass 1,600 if macroeconomic conditions improve, such as a dovish Federal Reserve pivot or a surge in institutional adoption, driving risk-on sentiment. Additionally, a potential Ethereum ETF approval or positive network developments (e.g., Dencun upgrade effects) may fuel upward momentum.
A bearish outcome is plausible if regulatory headwinds (e.g., SEC enforcement actions) or macroeconomic tightening (e.g., higher-than-expected inflation) dampen crypto sentiment. Technical resistance around 1,600 or a broader market downturn could also cap gains.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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