Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: High volatility in crypto markets reduces prediction accuracy
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 5:46:59 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 39% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,719,082
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for 'Ethereum above 1,590 on July 2, 3AM ET' is evenly split at 50%, indicating no strong consensus on whether ETH will close above this threshold. The outcome hinges on short-term price volatility and market sentiment around that specific time.
Ethereum could surge above 1,590 due to a positive catalyst such as a major DeFi protocol announcement, a favorable regulatory development in the US, or renewed institutional buying interest. A breakout above resistance levels could trigger momentum trading.
Ethereum might fail to reach 1,590 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., Federal Reserve policy signals) dampen risk appetite, or if technical resistance holds. A broader crypto market downturn or negative sentiment around Ethereum's network upgrades could also cap gains.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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