Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific anomalies or liquidity constraints
Calibrated 100% · raw 175% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 8:15:18 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
98%
ORYN Consensus
96%
Signal Score
-1.8
Opportunity
1.5
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,857,216
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -175.0¢
Entry: 95-100
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
2 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market overwhelmingly favors Ethereum (ETH/USDT) closing above 1,580 at 5AM ET on June 30, with a 96.70% probability. This reflects strong bullish sentiment, likely driven by recent price momentum and market conditions.
Ethereum's strong upward trend, supported by recent institutional adoption and positive regulatory developments, suggests sustained buying pressure. Technical indicators like RSI and moving averages also signal overbought conditions, which historically precede further gains.
A sudden macroeconomic shock (e.g., Fed rate hike, regulatory crackdown) or profit-taking could trigger a sharp correction, pushing ETH below 1,580. Additionally, low liquidity or exchange anomalies on Binance could distort the closing price.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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