Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Binance-specific price manipulation risks
AI updated 7/2/2026, 5:46:54 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 39% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,718,747
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH) closing above 1,580 USDT on July 2, 2024, at 3 AM ET is evenly split with a 50% probability, indicating high uncertainty. The resolution hinges on Binance's ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close price, which introduces volatility risks due to exchange-specific liquidity and trading dynamics.
Ethereum could surpass 1,580 USDT if macroeconomic conditions improve (e.g., US inflation data cools) or if a pro-crypto policy shift occurs. Additionally, a potential spot ETF approval or strong network activity (e.g., DeFi demand) could drive price momentum, pushing it above the threshold.
Ethereum may fail to reach 1,580 USDT if market sentiment sours due to regulatory crackdowns, macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., recession fears), or weak network fundamentals. Liquidation cascades or low trading volume on Binance could also suppress the price below the target.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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