Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Volatility spikes due to external shocks (e.g., geopolitical events)
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 6:47:22 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 45% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,815,391
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) closing above 1,560 on June 30 at 4AM ET shows a neutral probability of 50.00%, indicating balanced expectations. The outcome hinges on short-term volatility drivers and market sentiment in the final hours.
Ethereum could surge above 1,560 if macroeconomic data (e.g., US inflation or Fed signals) boosts risk appetite, or if a last-minute surge in DeFi activity or ETF speculation occurs. A breakout above key resistance levels (e.g., 1,550-1,560) could trigger momentum buying.
Ethereum may fail to reach 1,560 if profit-taking or regulatory uncertainty (e.g., SEC actions) dampens sentiment. A pullback below 1,540 could signal a downward correction, especially if broader crypto markets trend lower.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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