Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific liquidity issues on Binance
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:48:28 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,921,299
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH) closing above $1,540 on June 30 at 7AM ET shows a neutral probability of 50%, indicating balanced expectations between bullish and bearish outcomes. The resolution is tied to Binance's ETH/USDT 1-hour candle close, ensuring direct market data alignment.
Ethereum could surpass $1,540 if Bitcoin maintains upward momentum, institutional demand for ETH ETFs increases, or macroeconomic conditions (e.g., Fed dovish signals) drive risk-on sentiment. Technical breakout above key resistance levels (e.g., $1,600) may trigger short-term buying pressure.
Ethereum may fail to reach $1,540 if regulatory uncertainty (e.g., SEC actions) dampens sentiment, macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., inflation data) trigger a risk-off shift, or technical rejection at resistance levels (e.g., $1,500) leads to profit-taking. Exchange liquidity constraints could also impact price discovery.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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