Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Volatility in traditional markets impacting crypto
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 10:47:20 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,157,562
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH/USDT) closing above 1,530 at Binance on June 30, 8PM ET shows a 50% probability, reflecting balanced market sentiment with no clear directional bias. The outcome hinges on short-term price action influenced by macroeconomic factors, technical levels, and crypto market dynamics.
Ethereum could rise above 1,530 if Bitcoin maintains strength above key support levels, altcoins rally on renewed institutional interest, or a positive regulatory development (e.g., ETH ETF approval) boosts sentiment. Short-term technical breakouts above resistance (e.g., 1,500) may trigger momentum-driven buying.
Ethereum may fail to breach 1,530 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., Fed hawkishness, risk-off sentiment) dampen crypto demand, or if technical resistance at 1,500-$1,520 holds. A broader market correction or negative ETH-specific news (e.g., regulatory crackdown) could push prices lower.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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