Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: High volatility in crypto markets leading to sudden price swings
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 2:47:28 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Ethereum and Bitcoin price movements are often correlated, thus 'Ethereum above 1,500 on June 28, 12PM ET' and 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?' or 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?' may influence each other
correlates · strength 60%
Geopolitical events like 'Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?' can impact global markets, including cryptocurrency, thereby affecting 'Ethereum above 1,500 on June 28, 12PM ET'
correlates · strength 60%
Unrelated events such as 'Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?' and 'Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?' are not likely to directly influence Ethereum's price
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,139,324
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH) closing above $1,500 on June 28 at 12PM ET shows a neutral balance, with a 50% probability. The outcome hinges on short-term volatility, market sentiment, and external macroeconomic factors influencing ETH/USDT trading pairs.
Ethereum could surpass $1,500 if there is a surge in institutional adoption, positive regulatory clarity, or a broader crypto market rally driven by Bitcoin's performance. Technical breakouts above key resistance levels or increased DeFi activity may also push the price higher.
A decline below $1,500 is plausible if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., Fed rate hikes, recession fears) dampen risk appetite. Negative regulatory news, security breaches, or a broader crypto market correction could also suppress ETH/USDT prices.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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