Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific volatility (Binance liquidity constraints)
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 1:46:21 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,351,333
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the ETH/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ethereum (ETH) above $1,500 on June 28 at 11PM ET shows a neutral probability of 50.00%, indicating no clear consensus on short-term price movement. The resolution depends on Binance's ETH/USDT hourly close price, which introduces exchange-specific volatility risks.
Ethereum could surge above $1,500 if macroeconomic conditions improve (e.g., Fed rate cut expectations) or if a major DeFi protocol launches with high user adoption. Strong institutional inflows into Ethereum ETFs or a bullish technical breakout (e.g., above $1,600 resistance) would also support this scenario.
Ethereum may fail to reach $1,500 if macro headwinds persist (e.g., hawkish Fed policy, recession fears) or if regulatory uncertainties dampen investor sentiment. A bearish technical breakdown (e.g., below $1,400 support) or negative on-chain metrics (e.g., declining TVL) could push prices lower.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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