Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Extremely short time horizon increases randomness
Calibrated 100% · raw 3000% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:39:27 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 31% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
20%
Signal Score
-30.0
Opportunity
15.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
Ethereum price movement is likely to be influenced by global market sentiment, which may be affected by the potential Israel strike on Yemen, as well as the outcome of the 2026 FIFA World Cup, and the restoration of the Fable 5 game for US customers. The dip in Bitcoin's price to $40,000 by December 31, 2026, and its potential to reach $77,500 in June, may also impact Ethereum's price movement.
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,090,826
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -3000.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
14h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This market bets on whether Ethereum's price will be higher or lower at the end of a 5-minute window on July 3, 2026. With a 50% probability, it reflects a fair coin flip given the short timeframe and lack of specific catalysts. The efficient market pricing offers no clear edge.
Crypto markets are volatile and can spike on news or order flow within minutes. A positive catalyst or momentum during the 5-minute period could push ETH up.
Over a 5-minute window, price changes are essentially random. Without a known event, the probability of 'up' equals 'down', and betting is a pure gamble.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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