This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 30 12:00 PM ET to July 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Key risk: Underestimation of Musk's future engagement on X
AI updated 6/27/2026, 9:00:59 AM
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from June 30 12:00 PM ET to July 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Crowd Consensus
1%
ORYN Consensus
1%
Signal Score
+0.5
Opportunity
0.4
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The prediction market suggests a low probability (0.55%) that Elon Musk will post between 380-399 tweets on X from June 30 to July 7, 2026. Historical data and Musk's engagement patterns indicate this outcome is highly unlikely.
Musk could increase posting frequency due to high-profile events, product launches, or strategic communications. A viral campaign or policy announcement might drive sustained engagement. If Musk reverts to pre-2024 posting habits, this range could be achievable.
Musk's posting frequency has declined significantly since 2024, averaging under 50 tweets per week. His focus on other ventures (e.g., xAI, Tesla) may further reduce X activity. Regulatory scrutiny or platform policy changes could also limit his posting.
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Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026? is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 0.6% while ORYN AI estimates 1%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
