Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected_forfeits_or_disqualifications
AI updated 7/1/2026, 1:02:02 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,206,482
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
6d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Inner Circle and 1win in the Esports World Cup Group D, initially scheduled for July 7 at 12:30PM ET. This market will resolve to "Inner Circle" if Inner Circle win the match against 1win. This market will resolve to "1win" if 1win win the match against Inner Circle. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team wins due to the opponent's forfeiture, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to the team who wins. If the match ends in a forfeit, disqualification, or walkover (team withdraws before the start and the other wins automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence. In cases where a team’s listed name includes minor discrepancies from the resolution source, this market will resolve based on the underlying real-world match rather than exact name matching. Recognizable abbreviations, alternate or erroneous spellings, sponsor tags, affiliate or academy designations, regional identifiers, and minor formatting differences will be treated as referring to the same team, provided the intended team can be clearly and uniquely identified within the relevant competition. If a listed team name has no reasonable connection to any participating team, or if it matches or could reasonably refer to another team in the same competition such that the intended team cannot be unambiguously determined, this market will resolve 50-50.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the Dota 2 match between Inner Circle and 1win (BO2) in Esports World Cup Group D is evenly split at 50%, reflecting high uncertainty due to evenly matched teams or lack of clear favorites. The outcome depends on in-game performance, drafting strategies, and potential last-minute roster changes.
Inner Circle could dominate if they leverage strong early-game advantages, superior drafting, or home-field familiarity (if applicable), leading to a decisive 2-0 victory. A bullish outcome would also consider 1win's potential fatigue from prior matches in the tournament.
1win may prevail if they exploit Inner Circle's weaknesses, such as poor lane control or late-game coordination issues, resulting in a 2-0 or 2-1 victory. External factors like player injuries or last-minute roster swaps could also favor 1win.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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