Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or incomplete gameplay defaulting to 50-50
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:01:41 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,075,791
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
4h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market is about whether any player achieves an Ultra Kill during Game 2. In Dota 2, an Ultra Kill occurs when a single player kills 4 enemy heroes in rapid succession without dying. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any player on either team achieves an Ultra Kill during Game 2. This market will resolve to "No" if no player achieves an Ultra Kill. A Rampage (5 kills in rapid succession) also counts as an Ultra Kill having occurred for the purposes of this market. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is never played due to forfeit, disqualification, or walkover, this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 is not played because the series result has already been determined (e.g., a team clinches the series before Game 2 is needed), this market will resolve to 50-50. If Game 2 begins but is not completed and ends via forfeit, this market will resolve based on whether an Ultra Kill occurred prior to stoppage. If no Ultra Kill occurred, this market will resolve to "No". If Game 2 is remade, resolution will be based on the remade game only. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market reflects a 50% probability of any player achieving an Ultra Kill in Game 2 of a Dota 2 match, indicating balanced expectations. Ultra Kills are rare but possible in high-stakes games, and the resolution criteria account for match cancellations or incomplete games.
An Ultra Kill is plausible if either team features a carry or mid-laner with high burst damage and favorable draft (e.g., strong initiation supports or kill lanes). High-pressure series games often see aggressive playstyles, increasing the likelihood of rapid multi-kills.
Ultra Kills are statistically uncommon, with most matches concluding without one. Defensive drafts, passive playstyles, or evenly matched teams reduce the probability. Additionally, match interruptions (e.g., delays, forfeits) default to 50-50 resolution.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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