Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delay beyond 7 days
Calibrated 100% · raw 8500% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 10:15:47 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
90%
ORYN Consensus
5%
Signal Score
-85.0
Opportunity
78.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,311,108
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -8500.0¢
Entry: 87-93
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
4 points
This market refers to the Counter-Strike match between UNO MILLE and Fluxo in the Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Playoffs, initially scheduled for June 28 at 2:00PM ET. This market is decided solely by the round score of Map 3 of this match, and is independent of which team wins Map 3 or the overall match. This market will resolve to "UNO MILLE" if UNO MILLE wins Map 3 by 4 or more rounds, including any overtime (i.e. UNO MILLE's round total on Map 3 exceeds Fluxo's by 4 or more). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Fluxo". Map 3 must be played to completion, with a final round score determined by rounds actually played, for this market to resolve to a team. If Map 3 is completed in this way, the market resolves on that round score regardless of how the remainder of the match concludes (including any later forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default). If Map 3 is not played at all, is not played to completion, or is decided by forfeit, disqualification, walkover, or default rather than by rounds played to a conclusion, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without Map 3 being completed, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead, including video evidence.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market overwhelmingly favors Fluxo (+3.5) to win Map 3 by 4+ rounds, with a 90% probability. The handicap requires UNO MILLE to overcome a 3.5-round deficit by winning by 4 or more rounds, making the path to resolution highly unlikely.
UNO MILLE could dominate Map 3 with a 7-1 or 8-2 victory, surpassing the +3.5 handicap to exceed the required +4 margin. Strong early-round performance or a strategic shift could enable this outcome.
Fluxo is heavily favored due to the handicap, requiring only a narrow win (e.g., 16-14) to resolve the market in their favor. UNO MILLE’s path to resolution is statistically improbable given the 3.5-round deficit.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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