Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected changes in lineup
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 7:16:13 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
-2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,116,166
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
13d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League game between SP La Fiorita and FC UNA Strassen, scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET: This market will resolve based on the final score of the SP La Fiorita vs. FC UNA Strassen match originally scheduled for July 14, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET, considering only the result at the end of 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time; extra time and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. If the actual score is not one of the explicitly listed outcomes, the market resolves to "Any Other Score." If the match is postponed, the market will remain open until it is completed; if it is canceled with no make-up game, the market resolves to "0-0." The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for a 0-0 draw between SP La Fiorita and FC UNA Strassen in their UEFA Europa Conference League match on July 14, 2026, currently shows a 50% probability. This reflects a balanced expectation, given the lack of historical data or pre-match dominance by either side.
A 0-0 outcome could arise if both teams prioritize defensive stability, particularly if SP La Fiorita (San Marino) and FC UNA Strassen (Luxembourg) are relatively evenly matched in skill. Low-scoring matches are common in early rounds of European competitions where underdogs seek to avoid elimination.
The probability of a 0-0 draw may be overestimated given the disparity in league levels (SP La Fiorita competes in San Marino's domestic league, while FC UNA Strassen plays in Luxembourg's top tier). A mismatch in quality could lead to a higher-scoring game, reducing the likelihood of a scoreless draw.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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