Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Token launch failure or delay
AI updated 7/2/2026, 6:03:39 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
100%
ORYN Consensus
100%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.4
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -45.0¢
Entry: 97-100
—
Resolution
498d
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cap's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cap (https://x.com/capmoney_) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market exhibits an extremely high probability (99.95%) of Cap's governance token FDV exceeding $100M one day after launch, suggesting near-certainty among participants. This reflects strong expectations of a successful token launch with significant initial valuation.
Cap's token launch is expected to generate substantial demand due to strong brand recognition, utility within a growing ecosystem, and favorable market conditions. High liquidity and early trading volume could drive the FDV well above $100M, supported by institutional and retail investor interest.
A failed launch, regulatory hurdles, or low liquidity could prevent the FDV from surpassing $100M. Negative market sentiment, technical issues, or weaker-than-expected adoption might lead to a sub-$100M valuation despite initial hype.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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