Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Ballot measure timing conflicts with other high-profile elections
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 10:30:58 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 44% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,569,258
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
124d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
Proposition 41 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would audit new tax spending and ban new taxes from being exempt from the state spending cap, which would offset the proposed wealth tax in Proposition 40. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The California Tax Spend Audit Proposition (Prop 41) has a neutral 50% market probability of passing in the November 2026 election, reflecting balanced voter uncertainty. The measure ties directly to wealth tax legislation (Prop 40), creating interdependent political dynamics.
Prop 41 could pass due to growing voter fatigue with unchecked tax spending and support for fiscal accountability measures. High-income taxpayers may mobilize against wealth tax exemptions, aligning with spending cap enforcement. Polling trends showing progressive tax fatigue could favor the proposition.
Prop 41 may fail as wealth tax opponents (including crypto and tech sectors) prioritize defeating Prop 40, making Prop 41 a secondary issue. Low voter awareness of spending cap mechanics could reduce turnout for the proposition. Democratic supermajorities in the legislature may resist fiscal constraints.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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