Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Extreme volatility in the 5-minute window may skew resolution outcomes
AI updated 7/2/2026, 4:30:49 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
1
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Bitcoin price prediction market for July 3, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET shows a balanced probability of 50.00%, indicating no clear directional bias in the short-term price movement. The market hinges on a 5-minute window, making it highly sensitive to micro-level volatility.
Bitcoin could rise if there is a sudden influx of buying pressure, such as institutional demand or positive regulatory news during the 5-minute window. A breakout above key resistance levels (e.g., $60,000) may trigger short-term momentum and attract retail traders.
Bitcoin could decline if selling pressure increases due to profit-taking, negative macroeconomic data, or sudden regulatory crackdowns. A drop below critical support (e.g., $58,000) may accelerate downside momentum and lead to cascading liquidations.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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