Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Potential latency or discrepancy in Chainlink's BTC/USD data feed
AI updated 7/2/2026, 12:15:39 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 38% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,655,824
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
18h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin's price movement between 8:05PM and 8:10PM ET on July 2 shows an even 50% probability for 'Up' or 'Down' resolution, indicating high uncertainty in the short-term price action. The market relies on Chainlink's BTC/USD data stream for resolution, which may introduce slight volatility compared to spot markets due to potential data feed delays.
Bitcoin could rise if a last-minute surge in institutional or retail buying occurs, driven by positive macroeconomic sentiment or a sudden regulatory development favoring crypto. Additionally, if the Chainlink data feed reflects a slight upward bias in the final seconds, the market may resolve 'Up'.
Bitcoin could decline if selling pressure intensifies in the final minutes, possibly due to profit-taking or negative news flow. A downward bias in the Chainlink data stream during the resolution window would also result in a 'Down' outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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