Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Chainlink oracle data discrepancies or delays
AI updated 7/3/2026, 4:21:10 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| omniroute | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 30% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
correlates · strength 60%
r1: 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?' and 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?' are directly related to Bitcoin price movements, providing broader context for short-term volatility in the July 3 window.
correlates · strength 60%
r2: 'Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?' may indirectly influence Bitcoin via tech sector sentiment or regulatory news, but correlation is weak and speculative.
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
3,178,829
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
14h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
This is a short-duration (15-minute) binary prediction market on Bitcoin price movement, resolving based on Chainlink BTC/USD data stream. The 50% market probability reflects the near-random nature of such ultra-short-term price movements, where directional prediction offers minimal edge over chance.
Bitcoin's intraday momentum and volume patterns during evening ET hours can sometimes show directional persistence, particularly if aligned with broader market trends or news catalysts. Technical indicators like RSI or MACD on 1-minute charts may provide marginal predictive signal for this narrow window.
Over a 15-minute window, Bitcoin price movements are dominated by noise and random walk dynamics, making any directional prediction essentially a coin flip. Transaction costs and market inefficiencies in such short timeframes make consistent profitability extremely difficult.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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