Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Volatility in Bitcoin's price due to low liquidity in the 15-minute window
Calibrated 100% · raw 250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:15:55 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.5
Opportunity
1.9
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
961,406
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 250.0¢
Entry: 46-52
—
Resolution
20h
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
11 points
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Bitcoin price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the BTC/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/btc-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream BTC/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Bitcoin price prediction market for June 29, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET shows a near-even split with a 49.50% probability of the price being 'Up' at resolution. The market hinges on a 15-minute price movement tracked by Chainlink's BTC/USD data stream.
A bullish outcome could occur if institutional buying activity, favorable macroeconomic sentiment, or short-term technical breakouts drive Bitcoin's price above its starting level. Positive regulatory news or ETF inflows in the APAC region may also contribute to upward momentum.
A bearish outcome may result from profit-taking after recent rallies, negative regulatory developments in key markets like China or India, or broader risk-off sentiment in global markets. Technical resistance or whale movements could also push the price below the starting level.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
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