Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: postponement_or_cancellation_risk
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/1/2026, 12:16:09 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.1
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,423,446
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
12d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
In the upcoming Brazil Serie B game between Ceará SC and Athletic Club, scheduled for July 13 at 7:30 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Ceará SC and Athletic Club combine to score 2 or more goals in the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. If the combined second-half total is less than 2 goals, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. This market refers only to the outcome within the second half of regular play plus second-half stoppage time. First-half goals, extra time, and penalty shoot-outs are excluded. The primary resolution source for this market is the official statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 2 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead. All markets will settle based on the official final result as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. Revisions to officially declared final scores made after market resolution will not be accounted for in determining the outcome.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Ceará SC vs. Athletic Club 2nd Half Over/Under 1.5 goals is evenly split, suggesting low conviction in either outcome. The 50% probability indicates a balanced expectation between defensive and offensive scenarios in the second half.
Ceará SC and Athletic Club may combine for 2+ goals in the second half due to both teams' attacking tendencies in Brazil Serie B. High-scoring matches (e.g., 2-1, 3-1) could push the total over 1.5, especially if either team is chasing a win in a competitive fixture.
A low-scoring second half is plausible if both teams prioritize defensive stability, particularly if the match is tightly contested. Historical data shows Serie B games often feature fewer than 2 goals in the second half, especially in mid-table matchups.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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