Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Data latency or discrepancies in Binance's BTC/USDT pair
AI updated 6/26/2026, 2:30:53 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.8
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
correlates · strength 60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11AM ET is related to the overall market sentiment, which is reflected in the other related markets. The market is expecting a decrease in Bitcoin's value, as seen in the questions about it reaching $30,000 and $50,000. This is consistent with the
correlates · strength 60%
correlated market
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 46-52
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
5
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Up" if the close price is greater than or equal to the open price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that begins on the time and date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT pair (https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT). The close « C » and open « O » displayed at the top of the graph for the relevant "1H" candle will be used once the data for that candle is finalized. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Bitcoin price movement market for June 26 at 11AM ET shows a near-even probability (49.50%) of the BTC/USDT price closing above or below its opening price for the specified 1-hour candle. The resolution depends solely on Binance's BTC/USDT pair data.
A bullish outcome is plausible if macroeconomic sentiment improves or institutional demand for Bitcoin rises ahead of the candle close. Short-term volatility spikes or positive regulatory news could also drive the price upward, aligning with the 'Up' resolution.
A bearish outcome is supported by persistent macroeconomic headwinds, such as a risk-off sentiment in global markets or regulatory uncertainty affecting Bitcoin. Negative sentiment or a sudden sell-off could push the price below the opening level, resolving the market as 'Down'.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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