Bitcoin above 63,800 on July 2, 11PM ET?

correlates · strength 60%

Weak-to-moderate risk-on correlation with 'Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?': no direct causal link, but broad market sentiment and wealth effects can create small cross-market co-movement in prediction prices without meaningful fundamental dependence.

correlates · strength 60%

Direct same-asset threshold linkage with 'Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June?': both are short-horizon BTC price barrier markets, so momentum, volatility, and macro/crypto news create a strong positive directional relationship, though the June timing means the related market can resolve earlier than July 2.

correlates · strength 60%

Very weak or negligible relationship with 'Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?': any connection is mostly indirect through geopolitical shocks affecting global risk assets, energy prices, and crypto sentiment; absent such spillovers, the markets are fundamentally unrelated.

correlates · strength 60%

Very weak or negligible relationship with 'Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?': the BTC threshold market and a product-restoration market have no material shared drivers beyond broad tech/risk sentiment, so any correlation is likely incidental rather than structural.

correlates · strength 60%

Opposing tail-risk relationship with 'Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026?': stronger odds of BTC staying above 63,800 by July 2 generally imply lower near-term probability of a later collapse to 40,000, but because the latter has a much longer window both can still resolve Yes if BTC first stays elevated and later crashes.