Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: High volatility in crypto markets
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 10:46:23 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 24% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin above $62,800 on July 2 at 8AM ET shows a 50% probability, indicating a balanced outlook with equal chances of the price being above or below the threshold. The neutral probability reflects high uncertainty due to volatile crypto market conditions and external macroeconomic factors.
Bitcoin could surpass $62,800 if institutional adoption accelerates, regulatory clarity improves, or a major macroeconomic event (e.g., Fed rate cut) boosts risk assets. Strong momentum from recent halving cycles or ETF inflows could also drive prices higher.
Bitcoin may fail to reach $62,800 if macroeconomic headwinds persist, such as a stronger-than-expected U.S. dollar, regulatory crackdowns, or a sell-off in risk assets. Geopolitical tensions or miner capitulation could also suppress prices.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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