Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unpredictable Fed policy shifts
AI updated 7/3/2026, 3:08:02 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Graph Relationships
Related markets and connected predictions
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Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
3
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin above $62,800 on July 2, 11PM ET, based on Binance BTC/USDT 1-hour candle close, shows a neutral 50% probability. The outcome hinges on short-term price action influenced by macroeconomic data, regulatory sentiment, and institutional flows.
Bitcoin could close above $62,800 if the US Federal Reserve signals dovish policy in its June 2026 FOMC meeting, triggering risk-on sentiment. Strong institutional demand from spot ETF inflows or a sustained rally in tech stocks may also propel BTC higher. Additionally, a potential approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs in additional jurisdictions could fuel momentum.
Bitcoin may fail to surpass $62,800 if macroeconomic headwinds persist, such as unexpected hawkish Fed signals or weak US economic data. Regulatory crackdowns or exchange liquidity issues could also suppress price action. A broader risk-off sentiment in equities or a correction in altcoins may further dampen BTC's performance.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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