Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: High volatility in the final hours leading to false breakouts
AI updated 7/1/2026, 9:47:32 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 44% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,569,678
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Bitcoin closing above 62,800 USDT on July 1 at 7PM ET is evenly split, with a 50% probability. The outcome hinges on short-term price volatility and market sentiment within the final hours of the specified period.
Bitcoin could surge above 62,800 if institutional buying resumes, macroeconomic data (e.g., U.S. jobs report or CPI) favors risk assets, or if a major positive catalyst (e.g., ETF approval or regulatory clarity) emerges in the final hours. Short-term momentum or whale movements may also drive the price higher.
Bitcoin may fail to reach 62,800 if selling pressure increases due to profit-taking, negative macroeconomic surprises (e.g., hawkish Fed signals), or regulatory headwinds. A sudden drop in liquidity or a major exchange outage could also cap gains.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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