Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Short-term volatility spikes due to low liquidity around holidays
AI updated 7/2/2026, 1:46:33 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 38% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,657,654
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market suggests an even 50% probability that Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) will close above $61,800 on July 1 at 11PM ET. The outcome hinges on short-term price dynamics and market sentiment within the next 24 hours.
Bitcoin could surge above $61,800 if macroeconomic data (e.g., U.S. inflation or Fed signals) turns unexpectedly dovish, or if institutional demand spikes ahead of the July 4th holiday. A breakout in altcoins or renewed ETF inflows could also fuel momentum.
Bitcoin may fail to breach $61,800 if risk-off sentiment dominates due to geopolitical tensions, regulatory uncertainty, or a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report. Profit-taking after recent rallies or a bearish technical reversal could also cap gains.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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