Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific price manipulation or liquidity issues on Binance
AI updated 7/1/2026, 8:47:03 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 44% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,569,773
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) closing above 61,400 on July 1 at 6PM ET is evenly split, with a 50% probability. The resolution depends on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-hour candle close, introducing exchange-specific volatility risks.
Bitcoin could surge above 61,400 due to renewed institutional demand, favorable macroeconomic conditions (e.g., Fed dovish pivot), or a strong altcoin season driving BTC higher. Short-term momentum from recent price action (e.g., breakout above key resistance) may also push prices higher.
Bitcoin may fail to sustain above 61,400 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., hawkish Fed signals, recession fears) dampen risk appetite. Exchange-specific liquidity constraints on Binance or regulatory uncertainty in key markets could also cap gains.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
No direct venue links for this market. ORYN exclusive markets are intelligence-only.
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