Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific liquidity or outages (e.g., Binance downtime)
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 3:46:13 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 22% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) closing above 61,200 at 1PM ET on July 2 shows a neutral probability (50.00%), reflecting balanced market sentiment. The resolution depends solely on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-hour candle close price, with no external biases influencing the outcome.
Bitcoin could surpass 61,200 if macroeconomic conditions improve, such as a dovish Federal Reserve pivot or strong institutional demand. Short-term momentum from technical breakouts or ETF inflows may also drive prices higher. Regulatory clarity or positive geopolitical developments could further boost sentiment.
A failure to sustain above 61,200 could result from macroeconomic headwinds like a hawkish Fed stance, weak risk appetite, or regulatory crackdowns. Technical rejection at resistance levels or profit-taking from miners/whales may suppress prices. Exchange liquidity constraints or broader crypto market downturns could also play a role.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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