Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Volatility spikes due to unexpected macroeconomic events
AI updated 6/29/2026, 11:47:36 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,543,400
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) closing above 61,000 at 9AM ET on June 29 shows a 50% probability, indicating a highly uncertain outlook with no clear directional bias. The resolution depends on Binance's 1-hour candle close price at the specified time.
Bitcoin could surge above 61,000 if macroeconomic conditions improve, such as a dovish Fed pivot or strong institutional demand, driving renewed bullish momentum. Alternatively, a short-term rally fueled by technical breakouts or positive regulatory news could push the price higher. Stronger-than-expected network activity or adoption metrics may also contribute to upward pressure.
Bitcoin may fail to sustain levels above 61,000 if macroeconomic headwinds persist, including persistent inflation or hawkish central bank policies. Regulatory crackdowns or exchange liquidity issues could trigger a correction. Additionally, profit-taking after recent rallies or negative sentiment in broader crypto markets may cap gains.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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