Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Volatility from Black Swan events (e.g., exchange hacks, regulatory shocks)
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:46:45 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,920,179
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) closing above $60,800 on June 30 at 7AM ET shows a neutral probability of 50.00%, reflecting balanced short-term sentiment. The market's resolution hinges on Binance's 1-hour candle close, with no clear directional bias at present.
Bitcoin could surpass $60,800 if macroeconomic conditions improve, such as a dovish Federal Reserve pivot or sustained institutional adoption. Positive regulatory clarity in key markets (e.g., U.S. or Asia) or a surge in ETF inflows may also drive prices higher. Short-term momentum from whale activity or derivatives positioning could accelerate the breakout.
A breach below $60,800 is plausible if macro headwinds persist, including a hawkish Fed stance, geopolitical tensions, or a risk-off shift in global markets. Regulatory crackdowns in major jurisdictions (e.g., further Bitcoin ETF rejections) or negative miner capitulation could suppress prices. Technical resistance at key levels may also cap upward movement.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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