Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: High intraday volatility leading to false breakouts
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 7:47:44 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,116,631
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) closing above 60,800 on June 30 at 5PM ET is evenly split with a 50% probability. The outcome hinges on short-term price volatility and market sentiment within the next 24 hours.
Bitcoin could surge above 60,800 if macroeconomic data (e.g., U.S. inflation or Fed policy signals) turns unexpectedly dovish, or if institutional demand spikes due to ETF flows or geopolitical risk aversion. A sustained breakout above key resistance levels (e.g., 61,000) could trigger algorithmic buying.
Bitcoin may fail to close above 60,800 if profit-taking intensifies near resistance or if negative regulatory news (e.g., exchange crackdowns) dampens sentiment. A rejection at 60,800 could lead to a pullback toward 58,000–59,000 support levels.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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