Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Volatility from external shocks (e.g., geopolitical events)
AI updated 7/1/2026, 4:46:41 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 50% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,275,314
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) exceeding 60,800 at the close of the 1-hour candle ending July 1, 2AM ET shows a neutral probability of 50%. This reflects balanced expectations between bullish and bearish scenarios, with no clear directional bias at present.
Bitcoin could surpass 60,800 if macroeconomic conditions improve, such as a dovish Fed pivot or sustained institutional adoption. Additionally, positive regulatory clarity or a major market catalyst (e.g., ETF approvals) could drive momentum. Technical breakouts above key resistance levels may also trigger short-term rallies.
Bitcoin may fail to reach 60,800 if macroeconomic headwinds persist, such as persistent inflation or a hawkish Fed stance. Regulatory crackdowns or negative market sentiment (e.g., liquidity crises) could suppress price action. Technical failures or bearish chart patterns may also cap gains.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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