Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Sudden regulatory crackdowns or unfavorable policy shifts in major markets
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 3:46:49 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
964,146
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) closing above 60,600 on June 28, 2024, at 1AM ET shows a neutral probability of 50%, indicating balanced expectations between bullish and bearish outcomes. The resolution depends on Binance's 1-hour candle close, with no clear directional bias in current market dynamics.
Bitcoin could surge above 60,600 due to potential positive macroeconomic data, institutional adoption signals, or a broader risk-on sentiment in crypto markets. A breakout above key resistance levels (e.g., $63K-$65K) could trigger short-term momentum buying, pushing the price higher. Additionally, if U.S. spot ETF inflows continue or regulatory clarity improves, sentiment may turn decisively bullish.
Bitcoin may fail to sustain above 60,600 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., Fed policy uncertainty, inflation concerns) dampen risk appetite. A rejection at resistance or a sudden sell-off in altcoins could trigger profit-taking or liquidations, pushing the price below 60,600. External shocks (e.g., geopolitical tensions, exchange issues) could also weigh on the market.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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