Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected macroeconomic data shifts
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 5:46:01 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 39% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,718,382
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) closing above 60,400 on July 2, 2024, at 3AM ET is evenly split, reflecting high uncertainty. The 50% probability suggests no clear directional bias in the near term for this specific threshold.
Bitcoin could surge above 60,400 if macroeconomic sentiment improves, with potential catalysts including a dovish Fed pivot, institutional adoption, or positive regulatory clarity in key markets like the U.S. or Asia. Short-term momentum could also be driven by whale movements or ETF inflows, pushing the price higher.
Bitcoin may fail to surpass 60,400 if macroeconomic headwinds persist, such as a hawkish Fed stance, geopolitical tensions, or regulatory crackdowns in major markets. Technical resistance at this level and profit-taking by miners or large holders could also cap upward movement.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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