Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Volatility spikes from macroeconomic surprises
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 1:46:04 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 21% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
1
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for Bitcoin trading above 60,200 USDT at the specified resolution time shows an even 50% probability, indicating a highly uncertain outlook. The neutral positioning reflects balanced risk between bullish and bearish catalysts.
Bitcoin could surge above 60,200 if U.S. spot ETF inflows accelerate, macroeconomic data (e.g., CPI) signals rate-cut expectations, or geopolitical tensions in Asia-Pacific reduce risk aversion. Short-term momentum from derivatives markets (e.g., funding rates) may also drive upward pressure.
Bitcoin may fail to sustain above 60,200 if macroeconomic headwinds (e.g., hawkish Fed signals) dampen risk appetite, or if regulatory uncertainty in key markets (e.g., China, South Korea) triggers sell-offs. Technical resistance levels or miner selling pressure could also cap gains.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
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