Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific volatility (Binance BTC/USDT liquidity)
AI updated 7/1/2026, 12:46:46 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 46% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,425,316
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin (BTC) closing above $60,200 on July 1, 2024, at 10AM ET shows a 50% probability, indicating a balanced outlook with no clear directional bias. The resolution depends on Binance's BTC/USDT 1-hour candle close price, which introduces exchange-specific volatility risks.
Bitcoin could close above $60,200 if macroeconomic sentiment improves, with potential Fed rate cut expectations or risk-on market conditions driving institutional and retail demand. Additionally, Bitcoin's halving cycle historically supports post-halving rallies, and technical breakouts above key resistance levels could trigger momentum buying.
A bearish outcome is plausible if macroeconomic headwinds persist, such as unexpected hawkish Fed signals or geopolitical tensions, reducing risk appetite. Technical rejection at resistance levels or broader market downturns in equities could also suppress Bitcoin's price below $60,200.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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