Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Sudden macroeconomic shock (e.g., inflation surprise, geopolitical event)
Calibrated 100% · raw 200% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/29/2026, 12:46:41 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+2.0
Opportunity
1.3
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,350,772
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 200.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) closing above 60,000 on June 28 at 10PM ET shows a 50% probability, indicating a balanced outlook with no clear directional bias. The market's neutrality reflects uncertainty in short-term price movements, given Bitcoin's recent volatility and macroeconomic factors.
Bitcoin could surpass 60,000 if risk-on sentiment returns, driven by institutional adoption, ETF inflows, or favorable U.S. economic data reducing recession fears. Technical breakouts above key resistance levels (e.g., 58,000–60,000 range) may trigger momentum buying. Short-term rallies could also be fueled by seasonal trends or positive regulatory news in major markets like the U.S. or Asia.
Bitcoin may fail to reach 60,000 if macroeconomic headwinds persist, such as persistent inflation, hawkish Fed policy, or a broader risk-off shift in global markets. Downside risks include regulatory crackdowns (e.g., in Asia), exchange liquidity issues, or a sudden sell-off in risk assets. Technical failure below 58,000 could accelerate bearish momentum.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
Route to regulated venues when you are ready. ORYN never holds your funds.
ORYN does not hold funds or execute trades. You will be redirected to a third-party regulated venue.
No comments yet.
