Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Unexpected macroeconomic shock (e.g., stagflation, geopolitical crisis)
AI updated 6/30/2026, 9:46:01 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
51%
Signal Score
+1.0
Opportunity
0.7
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,920,149
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 100.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) closing above $59,000 on June 30 at 7AM ET is evenly split at 50%, indicating no clear consensus on near-term price direction. The market reflects balanced risk perception between bullish and bearish catalysts within the next two weeks.
Bitcoin could surge above $59,000 if macroeconomic conditions improve, such as softer US inflation data reducing Fed rate hike expectations, or if institutional adoption accelerates with ETF inflows. A sustained breakout above key resistance levels (e.g., $60,000) could trigger algorithmic buying and momentum-driven rallies.
A bearish scenario could materialize if macroeconomic uncertainty persists, with higher-than-expected US inflation or hawkish Fed signals dampening risk appetite. Regulatory crackdowns in major markets (e.g., US or Asia) or negative macroeconomic data (e.g., weak PMI readings) could push Bitcoin below $59,000.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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