Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Exchange-specific volatility (Binance-specific liquidity constraints)
AI updated 6/29/2026, 12:45:36 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,330,845
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Close" price for the BTC/USDT 1 hour candle that ends on the time and date specified in the title is higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1h" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Bitcoin price prediction market for June 28, 10PM ET (BTC/USDT > 57,600) shows a neutral probability of 50.00%, indicating balanced expectations between bullish and bearish outcomes. The resolution relies on Binance's BTC/USDT hourly candle close, ensuring high data reliability but introducing exchange-specific volatility risks.
Bitcoin could surpass 57,600 if macroeconomic conditions improve, such as a dovish Federal Reserve pivot or strong institutional adoption, driving renewed buying pressure. Short-term momentum from whale movements or ETF inflows could also push prices higher, especially if sentiment aligns with recent bullish technical patterns like the breakout above key resistance levels.
A rejection below 57,600 may occur if macroeconomic headwinds persist, such as persistent inflation data forcing delayed Fed rate cuts, or regulatory uncertainty dampening investor confidence. Additionally, profit-taking after recent rallies or a sudden shift in market sentiment toward risk-off could cap upward momentum.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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