Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_cancellation_or_delay
AI updated 6/30/2026, 11:15:24 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
52%
ORYN Consensus
53%
Signal Score
+0.3
Opportunity
0.2
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,966,633
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 30.0¢
Entry: 49-55
—
Resolution
7d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
22 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Daniel Rincon and Mathys Erhard in the Milan, originally scheduled for July 1, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Rincon' if Daniel Rincon advances against Mathys Erhard. This market will resolve to 'Mathys Erhard' if Mathys Erhard advances against Daniel Rincon. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market favors Daniel Rincon (52.50%) slightly over Mathys Erhard in their upcoming Milan tennis match. The outcome hinges on in-match performance, with a fallback to 50-50 in cases of cancellation, tie, walkover, or unresolved delays.
Daniel Rincon benefits from a slight market edge, suggesting perceived strengths in form, surface adaptability, or head-to-head history. His probability may reflect recent ATP Tour performances or pre-match seeding advantages.
Mathys Erhard's 47.50% probability indicates potential for upsetting the favorite, possibly due to Rincon's vulnerabilities on grass courts or Erhard's momentum in ATP Challenger events. External factors like weather or fatigue could also play a role.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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