Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: insufficient_historical_data_on_players
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:19:04 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
964,146
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
8d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Mwendwa Mbithi and Matias Soto in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of sets completed equals or exceeds 3. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." A super tie breaker is considered as one (1) set for total set markets. If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger statistics.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the total sets in the Mwendwa Mbithi vs. Matias Soto tennis match is evenly split, with a 50% probability for both Over and Under 2.5 sets. The match's outcome is highly uncertain due to limited available data on both players' styles and recent form.
The match could exceed 2.5 sets if both players engage in a highly competitive, long-duration match with extended rallies and frequent breaks, typical of high-stakes Challenger events. Mwendwa Mbithi, if playing aggressively, or Matias Soto, if employing a defensive baseline strategy, could prolong the match to 3 or more sets.
The match may under 2.5 sets if either player dominates early, leading to a swift two-set victory. High-ranked or in-form players often conclude matches quickly in Challenger events, especially if one player has a significant serve advantage or poor return game.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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