Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: injury_absence
Calibrated 100% · raw 2250% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/28/2026, 8:00:57 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
27%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
+22.5
Opportunity
14.6
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
1,014,275
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 2250.0¢
Entry: 24-30
—
Resolution
8d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
8 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Mwendwa Mbithi and Matias Soto in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mwendwa Mbithi' if Mwendwa Mbithi advances against Matias Soto. This market will resolve to 'Matias Soto' if Matias Soto advances against Mwendwa Mbithi. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The Quito tennis match between Mwendwa Mbithi and Matias Soto is currently evenly split, with Mbithi holding a slight edge at 49.55%. The outcome hinges on player performance and external factors given their similar market probabilities.
Mwendwa Mbithi could capitalize on home advantage (if applicable), recent form improvements, or Matias Soto's potential weaknesses in clay court play, leading to an upset victory. Strong serve performance or strategic playstyle could also favor Mbithi.
Matias Soto may outperform Mbithi due to higher ATP ranking, clay court experience, or superior endurance in best-of-three sets. External factors like weather conditions or travel fatigue could also disadvantage Mbithi.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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