Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match cancellation or delay beyond resolution criteria
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:16:58 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
965,623
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
8d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Ioannis Xilas and Manoj Dhamne Manas in the Troyes, originally scheduled for June 30, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Xilas" if Ioannis Xilas wins by 2 or more sets than Manoj Dhamne Manas, based on the final completed score. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Manas." If the match begins but is not completed, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled before play begins or delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a result, this market will also resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger results.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for Xilas (-1.5) vs Manas (+1.5) in the tennis match is currently at a 50% probability, indicating a balanced expectation with no clear favorite. The handicap suggests a high likelihood of a closely contested match requiring a two-set margin for Xilas to win the bet.
Xilas could win the market if he outperforms expectations, securing a two-set margin victory despite being the underdog in the handicap. Strong serve performance or Manas's fatigue in long matches could favor Xilas. Pre-match form or surface suitability might also play a role in a dominant Xilas performance.
Manas is favored to win the market as the +1.5 handicap implies he is expected to either win outright or lose by only one set. Xilas's inconsistent form or Manas's resilience in tight matches could lead to a narrow loss. External factors like weather or injury during the match could also shift the outcome.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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