Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or walkover (resolves to 50-50)
Calibrated 100% · raw 3300% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 7/2/2026, 12:15:25 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 38% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
81%
ORYN Consensus
48%
Signal Score
-33.0
Opportunity
24.8
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,656,904
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -3300.0¢
Entry: 78-84
—
Resolution
8d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
22 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Hernan Casanova and Juan Sebastian Osorio in the Quito, originally scheduled for July 3, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Hernan Casanova' if Hernan Casanova advances against Juan Sebastian Osorio. This market will resolve to 'Juan Sebastian Osorio' if Juan Sebastian Osorio advances against Hernan Casanova. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the Quito tennis match between Hernan Casanova and Juan Sebastian Osorio shows a near-even split at 47.50%, indicating high uncertainty. The outcome hinges on player performance, external conditions, and potential match disruptions.
Hernan Casanova could advance if he leverages his recent form, home-court advantage (Quito), or Osorio's potential fatigue from prior matches. A strong serve or aggressive baseline play may tilt odds in his favor.
Juan Sebastian Osorio may prevail due to his higher ATP ranking, experience in clay courts, or if Casanova underperforms under pressure. External factors like weather delays or injuries could also favor Osorio.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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