Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: Match cancellation or delay beyond resolution window
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:31:17 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
965,623
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
MEDIUM
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
8d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Hernan Casanova and Mario Andre Galarraga in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Casanova” if Hernan Casanova wins set 2. It will resolve to “Galarraga” if Mario Andre Galarraga wins set 2. If the match begins but set 2 is not completed with a winner determined (including the match ending before set 2 is reached), this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for the Set 2 winner between Hernan Casanova and Mario Andre Galarraga is evenly split at 50%, reflecting no clear favorite in this ATP Challenger match. The resolution hinges on the outcome of the second set, with a 50-50 fallback if the match is canceled, delayed, or set 2 remains incomplete.
Hernan Casanova may benefit from home-court advantage in Quito, where he has performed well historically. His recent form, if stronger than Galarraga's, could tilt the odds in his favor for set 2. Surface conditions or tactical adjustments might also favor Casanova.
Mario Andre Galarraga could exploit Casanova's potential vulnerabilities, such as inconsistency or fatigue in longer matches. Galarraga's experience or higher ranking might give him an edge in a tightly contested set 2. External factors like weather or officiating could also disrupt Casanova's performance.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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