Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match cancellation due to weather
AI updated 6/28/2026, 5:19:15 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
50%
ORYN Consensus
50%
Signal Score
0.0
Opportunity
0.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
965,623
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
8
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 0.0¢
Entry: 47-53
—
Resolution
8d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
1 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Hernan Casanova and Mario Andre Galarraga in the Quito, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve to “Casanova” if Hernan Casanova wins the first set. It will resolve to “Galarraga” if Mario Andre Galarraga wins the first set. If the match begins but is not completed, and the first set is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on that completed set. If the first set is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. Resolution will be based on official Challenger match statistics.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market for the first set winner between Hernan Casanova and Mario Andre Galarraga is perfectly balanced at 50.00%, reflecting equal perceived chances of either player winning the opening set. The neutral probability accounts for the lack of clear dominance in their head-to-head or recent form.
Casanova could capitalize on home-court advantage (Quito) and his clay-court experience, leveraging aggressive baseline play to dominate the first set. Early momentum or a strong serving game could tilt the odds in his favor.
Galarraga may exploit Casanova's inconsistent second-serve returns or capitalize on clay-court rallies, using his defensive skills to prolong points and outlast Casanova in a tight first set. Fatigue or injury concerns could also weigh on Casanova.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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