Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: unexpected player withdrawal before the match
Calibrated 100% · raw 300% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:15:32 AM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 23% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
49%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
+3.0
Opportunity
2.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
49/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
125
Avg slippage
4486 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
565ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
12,367,148
Trades learned
125
Strategies
5
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV 300.0¢
Entry: 45-52
—
Resolution
Past
Decision snapshots
12
Price history
18 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Camilo Ugo Carabelli' if Camilo Ugo Carabelli advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The market currently favors Camilo Ugo Carabelli (51.5%) over Daniel Merida Aguilar in their Wimbledon ATP match. The slight edge for Carabelli reflects his marginally higher probability of advancing, though the race is close and subject to match-specific dynamics.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli’s recent form and surface adaptability suggest he has a slight advantage. His higher ATP ranking (123 vs. Merida Aguilar’s 147) and potential momentum heading into Wimbledon could tilt the odds in his favor. Grass courts historically favor his playing style.
Daniel Merida Aguilar’s underdog status may be underestimated by the market. His lower ranking could reflect a lack of recent success, but upsets in tennis are common, especially on grass where unpredictability is higher. Merida Aguilar’s potential to exploit Carabelli’s weaknesses in key moments could swing the match.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
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