This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Camilo Ugo Carabelli' if Camilo Ugo Carabelli advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Key risk: unexpected player withdrawal before the match
AI updated 6/27/2026, 5:15:32 AM
This market refers to the tennis match between Camilo Ugo Carabelli and Daniel Merida Aguilar in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Camilo Ugo Carabelli' if Camilo Ugo Carabelli advances against Daniel Merida Aguilar. This market will resolve to 'Daniel Merida Aguilar' if Daniel Merida Aguilar advances against Camilo Ugo Carabelli. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd Consensus
52%
ORYN Consensus
52%
Signal Score
-0.5
Opportunity
0.3
ORYN is polling its model network — Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — for this market. The consensus and per-model dissent will appear here.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
The market currently favors Camilo Ugo Carabelli (51.5%) over Daniel Merida Aguilar in their Wimbledon ATP match. The slight edge for Carabelli reflects his marginally higher probability of advancing, though the race is close and subject to match-specific dynamics.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli’s recent form and surface adaptability suggest he has a slight advantage. His higher ATP ranking (123 vs. Merida Aguilar’s 147) and potential momentum heading into Wimbledon could tilt the odds in his favor. Grass courts historically favor his playing style.
Daniel Merida Aguilar’s underdog status may be underestimated by the market. His lower ranking could reflect a lack of recent success, but upsets in tennis are common, especially on grass where unpredictability is higher. Merida Aguilar’s potential to exploit Carabelli’s weaknesses in key moments could swing the match.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your forecast thesis.
Wimbledon ATP: Camilo Ugo Carabelli vs Daniel Merida Aguilar is tracked on ORYN with data sourced from polymarket. Current market-implied probability is 52% while ORYN AI estimates 51.5%.
ORYN aggregates forecasting intelligence across Asia-focused categories including crypto, AI, cricket, startups, and global events.
