Market Trading Terminal · RC10
Key risk: match_cancellation_or_delay
Calibrated 100% · raw 2400% — adjusted by the learning loop
AI updated 6/30/2026, 6:15:36 PM
Microstructure, quotes, and decision memory
Live market activity from the aggregated feed. Two-sided quotes appear when an order book is available for this market.
Who contributed to this decision
| Provider | Score | Accuracy | On this market |
|---|---|---|---|
| fincept | 1 | — | Active |
| oryn_db | — | — | Active |
| polymarket | — | — | Active |
| mistral | — | — | Active |
| news | 1 | — | Global only |
| social | 1 | — | Global only |
| economic_calendar | 1 | — | Global only |
| trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| google_trends | 1 | — | Global only |
| pricing_ensemble | 0 | 47% | Global only |
ORYN polls Claude, GPT, Gemini and more — consensus appears as models respond.
Crowd Consensus
68%
ORYN Consensus
44%
Signal Score
-24.0
Opportunity
18.0
Related markets and connected predictions
Simulated execution for this market
Quality score
50/100
Fill rate
100%
Executions
112
Avg slippage
5414 bps
Open positions
0
Latency
520ms
Platform-wide model improvement
Events
2,048,648
Trades learned
112
Strategies
4
Providers scored
9
Counterfactual strategy simulations
No replay comparisons for this market yet. Replay runs as markets resolve and accumulate snapshots. Replay lab →
LOW
EV -2400.0¢
Entry: 65-71
—
Resolution
8d
Decision snapshots
0
Price history
7 points
This market refers to the tennis match between Facundo Acosta and Daniele Rapagnetta in the Milan, originally scheduled for July 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Facundo Acosta' if Facundo Acosta advances against Daniele Rapagnetta. This market will resolve to 'Daniele Rapagnetta' if Daniele Rapagnetta advances against Facundo Acosta. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Crowd-implied vs ORYN AI fair value over time, with decision markers
The prediction market for the Milan tennis match between Facundo Acosta and Daniele Rapagnetta shows a slight bearish bias with Acosta at 44% probability. The market accounts for potential match cancellations or walkovers, which resolve to 50-50.
Facundo Acosta has a competitive edge due to his higher ATP ranking (assuming this is reflected in recent performance trends) and potential home-court advantage in Milan. His aggressive playing style could dominate Daniele Rapagnetta, especially on clay courts.
Daniele Rapagnetta may outperform expectations due to his underdog status, leveraging experience in similar tournaments or Acosta's potential fatigue. External factors like weather disruptions or injuries could favor Rapagnetta.
Regime: — · Confidence: 0%
Trade links and live readiness
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